Crazy thing is I think oil is the best buy out there with the market running like it is,.. Remember oil was 60 dollars last July.
we are still an oil economy and it will come back price wise down the road...
I like PSX (Phillips 66 ) Great balance sheet decent management and they weathered the last oil storm well and came out in a position of relative strength.
Just a thought....
we are still an oil economy and it will come back price wise down the road...
I like PSX (Phillips 66 ) Great balance sheet decent management and they weathered the last oil storm well and came out in a position of relative strength.
Just a thought....
Man... I hate the way the market has run..I'm holding some ROM and have flipped in and out a few big names.
I'm still not sold on this "recovery" in the market and the "recovery" in the economy is going to be more slow and painful than people think...for a stock picker it's tough spot at this moment because of the way it's run as of late.
I'm starting to look very long and thinking about ignoring the day to day.
I just hate the fundamentals here but normal valuations have been tossed out the window so....
Have a good weekend Bruinsfan
I'm still not sold on this "recovery" in the market and the "recovery" in the economy is going to be more slow and painful than people think...for a stock picker it's tough spot at this moment because of the way it's run as of late.
I'm starting to look very long and thinking about ignoring the day to day.
I just hate the fundamentals here but normal valuations have been tossed out the window so....
Have a good weekend Bruinsfan
I agree with Bozzie that I am not sold on the recovery. The big wild card that is hard for me to quantify is the 2 trillion the government is spending. They cant bail everyone out. How do you have a significant effect (which the virus/economy has had) on some business (pick a business) with some uncertainty on how fast it will recover, when it will recover plus how much it will recover and then say that is about a 10 to 15% haircut in their stock price? Just doesnt add up to me. I got out early and I am sitting the majority in cash right now. I have been doing well picking and choosing some plays but everything with a short leash (possibly more out of boredom because I usually dont get in and out daily or weekly). That said...Friday was a horrible for me.
I like going against Trump because he doesnt tell the truth. Before the oil meeting a week ago I shorted oil with an EFT. I got in at $19 and sold some Wednesday for $31 and the balance Thursday at $32. So I was happy with that one.
On the oil front I have bought oil tanker stocks and continue to hold them. The amount of the cuts agreed to are a drop in the bucket to demand cuts. The oil has to go somewhere. For now it is oil tankers. There needs to be a serious cut in supply before we get close to balancing. Airplane and cars consumption way down....10 percent cut isnt even close to what is needed.
On this same line I think you could see a fundamental shift in the way businesses operate going forward. Having more employees work from home, less office space to rent and less driving. Long term less demand for oil. On that same line...commercial real estate just took a huge hit. Plus you will see a shift in many sectors of the economy. For example colleges and universities should go to more online classes and reducing tuition costs. Do you really need to sit in a classroom to take pysch 101? Other businesses are going to change too and require less retail space/office space.
In regards to oil stocks....they may turn out to have a huge upside but there could also be a thinning of the herd. In the last financial crisis one of my friends bought I believe Bank of America at about $40...bought more at $30...bought some more at $20.....bought even more at $15 and said how low can it go? I told him 0. I think Lehman Brothers went under about 3 days later. With that said I won't be buying any oil stocks. Plus I don't like the industry....seems crooked to me.
I had some conversations with some friends of mine in regards to gold a few weeks ago and I cut and pasted part of an email. My biggest current position is in this arena and of course it is boring as hell.
2008 financial crisis and now in 2020. When the market has a heart attack correlation for every asset is1. But gold has been up yoy and ytd. The last time gold was at this price $1,700, GDX was at $62 (double today's price) and GDXJ was at $150 (5 times today's price). Their only product is gold. Price, (mis)management, energy prices and leverage all impact miners profits. All except (mis)management are very favorable right now.
Gold and to a lesser extent silver are monetary not economic investments (silver has some industrial uses). It has a very low correlation to stock markets. Gold is money- dollars, Euros, yen are fiat. How can dollars not become worthless when you are printing money like a third world country. This is 3x TARP and counting. In 1986 1 USD= 18 VND. Today 1 USD= 23,400 VND. Why? Simple. The Vietnamese government printed money. Gold theoretically holds its value. Ownership of gold is very low both with institutions and individuals. At times they hit crazy highs- without explanation?
I bought GDXJ, GDX and GLD
I wont be buying a company like Tesla that seems to be a wildcard. Someone might do great on it. Great for them. I just dont trust Elon. Evil genius...maybe. They have significant debt, he lies too much for me and if people take financial hits buying an expensive car may not be in the cards. Someone like Volkswagon could easily pass Tesla and be the dominant player in the electric car market.
In terms of other sectors or companies I want to stick to companies that have very little competition and are going to be around a year, 5 years, 10 years from now. Cash on hand not a bad thing either. Not a big fan of Microsoft but their product is good, they have cash and they are expanding where the world is going: cloud services and their teams software is great (on my list to buy). I will be buying more Boeing....just not for awhile....they dont have much competition. I think of it this way I dont need to hit a home run. I just need to have some solid singles and limit my pop ups. It is great to tell the story that you bought Solar Edge at $10 and sold at $130 two years later (another company I will buy back...just not sure when). You just dont hear people talking about buying some stock at $130 and reluctantly selling it at $10. If you invest in stocks you are going to have some of those ground out into a triple play stocks. With age I have learned to avoid those. Cut your loses.
Just seems to be more uncertainty in the market so dont fall in love with anything would be my best advice. There is nothing wrong with getting out....and reevaluating the situation. Also dont have fear of missing out....I think someone posted Warren Buffet....you dont have to swing at every pitch.
I like going against Trump because he doesnt tell the truth. Before the oil meeting a week ago I shorted oil with an EFT. I got in at $19 and sold some Wednesday for $31 and the balance Thursday at $32. So I was happy with that one.
On the oil front I have bought oil tanker stocks and continue to hold them. The amount of the cuts agreed to are a drop in the bucket to demand cuts. The oil has to go somewhere. For now it is oil tankers. There needs to be a serious cut in supply before we get close to balancing. Airplane and cars consumption way down....10 percent cut isnt even close to what is needed.
On this same line I think you could see a fundamental shift in the way businesses operate going forward. Having more employees work from home, less office space to rent and less driving. Long term less demand for oil. On that same line...commercial real estate just took a huge hit. Plus you will see a shift in many sectors of the economy. For example colleges and universities should go to more online classes and reducing tuition costs. Do you really need to sit in a classroom to take pysch 101? Other businesses are going to change too and require less retail space/office space.
In regards to oil stocks....they may turn out to have a huge upside but there could also be a thinning of the herd. In the last financial crisis one of my friends bought I believe Bank of America at about $40...bought more at $30...bought some more at $20.....bought even more at $15 and said how low can it go? I told him 0. I think Lehman Brothers went under about 3 days later. With that said I won't be buying any oil stocks. Plus I don't like the industry....seems crooked to me.
I had some conversations with some friends of mine in regards to gold a few weeks ago and I cut and pasted part of an email. My biggest current position is in this arena and of course it is boring as hell.
2008 financial crisis and now in 2020. When the market has a heart attack correlation for every asset is1. But gold has been up yoy and ytd. The last time gold was at this price $1,700, GDX was at $62 (double today's price) and GDXJ was at $150 (5 times today's price). Their only product is gold. Price, (mis)management, energy prices and leverage all impact miners profits. All except (mis)management are very favorable right now.
Gold and to a lesser extent silver are monetary not economic investments (silver has some industrial uses). It has a very low correlation to stock markets. Gold is money- dollars, Euros, yen are fiat. How can dollars not become worthless when you are printing money like a third world country. This is 3x TARP and counting. In 1986 1 USD= 18 VND. Today 1 USD= 23,400 VND. Why? Simple. The Vietnamese government printed money. Gold theoretically holds its value. Ownership of gold is very low both with institutions and individuals. At times they hit crazy highs- without explanation?
I bought GDXJ, GDX and GLD
I wont be buying a company like Tesla that seems to be a wildcard. Someone might do great on it. Great for them. I just dont trust Elon. Evil genius...maybe. They have significant debt, he lies too much for me and if people take financial hits buying an expensive car may not be in the cards. Someone like Volkswagon could easily pass Tesla and be the dominant player in the electric car market.
In terms of other sectors or companies I want to stick to companies that have very little competition and are going to be around a year, 5 years, 10 years from now. Cash on hand not a bad thing either. Not a big fan of Microsoft but their product is good, they have cash and they are expanding where the world is going: cloud services and their teams software is great (on my list to buy). I will be buying more Boeing....just not for awhile....they dont have much competition. I think of it this way I dont need to hit a home run. I just need to have some solid singles and limit my pop ups. It is great to tell the story that you bought Solar Edge at $10 and sold at $130 two years later (another company I will buy back...just not sure when). You just dont hear people talking about buying some stock at $130 and reluctantly selling it at $10. If you invest in stocks you are going to have some of those ground out into a triple play stocks. With age I have learned to avoid those. Cut your loses.
Just seems to be more uncertainty in the market so dont fall in love with anything would be my best advice. There is nothing wrong with getting out....and reevaluating the situation. Also dont have fear of missing out....I think someone posted Warren Buffet....you dont have to swing at every pitch.
Last week, Congress enacted the CARES Act, which gave two major types of relief to homeowners with federally backed loans. This is a cluster fuck and its hurting more then its helping new home owners, I love the housing market, my rental company and my building company has not slowed down, only my commercial building company I invest in , has postponed opportunities to start new projects.
The biggest problem we have is finding land at a affordable price. Realty Income Corp has always been one of my favorite stocks, I love the monthly dividend$.
The biggest problem we have is finding land at a affordable price. Realty Income Corp has always been one of my favorite stocks, I love the monthly dividend$.
Normally not mad when I make a profit......today I am kicking myself a little on the oil short EFT. Bought around $19....went to $33. Sold half at $31. Next day sold the other half at $32. It went down to $30 and I was feeling pretty smart. When you make a profit you shouldnt be mad. Three trading days later it is $55.
Oh well. On to the next trade. I am more a buy and hold guy. So this in and out thing is a bit of a new challenge. I dont want to get too emotionally involved with anything. I think it will be bad.
The brother of a friend of mine graduated from college and day traded. The first year he made over a million dollars. The next year he lost a million. It takes the right kind of discipline to buy and sell and be disciplined. Not sure if that is me.
For now having some fun in the market and making a few bucks.
Oh well. On to the next trade. I am more a buy and hold guy. So this in and out thing is a bit of a new challenge. I dont want to get too emotionally involved with anything. I think it will be bad.
The brother of a friend of mine graduated from college and day traded. The first year he made over a million dollars. The next year he lost a million. It takes the right kind of discipline to buy and sell and be disciplined. Not sure if that is me.
For now having some fun in the market and making a few bucks.
I have two oil stocks and I plan to hold on! I might sell early if there's a little profit worth taking. I'll be honest, I knew there was trouble in the market - which I felt like was a good time to buy cheap - but I didn't see this disaster coming. I'm 49 years old....so I've got plenty of time (hopefully!).
I think the end result of the virus is there is going to be some fundamental shifts in how things are done in the world. One of those shifts is companies are going to have a large group of people working from home now. That will definitely effect commercial real estate. It will also have effects on things like gas consumption, insurance, cloud services and virtual meeting services.
You will see others major changes in a variety of industries. Looking at those and who will grow because of them will result in good investments.
With that said it is another obstacle for oil. Oil is just not my thing and I have said I think there is a definite crookedness to oil which makes me want to play even less. I will stick to other industries.
GL
MartinSmith1 why didn't you name some of the specific companies in the mining sector last month before the run ? can you explain the technicals of trading this sector ? who is driving up the price and why ? can you give us some price targets on specific stocks or funds ? what are the discount rates of these assets ? what method are you using to deem them undervalued ?
